Saturday Night Five: Riley hire, champ game scene bookend winning week for the conference (regardless of the CFP situation)
Instant reaction to Pac-12 developments on and off the field …
1. What. A. Week.
The 14th and final week of the regular season won’t end well for the Pac-12.
For the fifth consecutive year, the conference will miss the College Football Playoff and all the trappings, cash and recruiting benefits that go with it.
But make no mistake: This was a hugely successful week for the Pac-12 on multiple fronts — each of which increases the probability of future success.
The headliner move, of course, was USC luring away Lincoln Riley. The stunning hire instantly transformed the trajectory of the Pac-12’s lone blue blood program and provided the entire conference with desperately-needed energy and star power.
But there were important, albeit lower-profile, decisions made in Seattle, Pullman and Corvallis:
— Washington hired Kalen DeBoer away from Fresno State, a low-wattage move compared to USC but a smart one nonetheless. In fact, two deeply trusted Hotline sources sent unsolicited text messages to us this week praising UW’s decision and predicting DeBoer would prove to be a better hire, dollar for dollar, than Riley.
— WSU introduced Jake Dickert as its permanent head coach. Yes, it was the obvious move after the Apple Cup victory, but that doesn’t make it any less significant. The Cougars didn’t need change; they needed continuity, and Dickert provides that. He gives WSU a chance to maintain the momentum acquired after the mid-season dismissal of Nick Rolovich.
— Oregon State locked down Jonathan Smith with a long-term contract (through the 2027 season), ensuring that the perfect coach for the Beavers will remain in place long enough to see the current uptick through to its conclusion.
Four coaching hires or extensions. Four smart moves, each in its own right.
That brings us to the final victory for the conference this week: The championship game.
What the matchup lacked in competitiveness — Utah whacked Oregon around for the second time in three weeks — it offset with mood and scene. The setting, Las Vegas, was exactly what the Pac-12 needed to reinvigorate its premier event.
With Utah fans occupying most of the seats, Allegiant Stadium was filled to 92 percent of capacity. It sounded good, it looked good, and it felt right for the conference — it felt like a big event — after so many years at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
And the rowdy crowd of 55,000+ capped what was indisputably a winning week for the conference.
2. Champ game comps
We found it useful to compare the first year in Las Vegas with the first championship game played at Levi’s Stadium.
It was 2014, and Oregon met Arizona with a playoff berth on the line and the soon-to-be Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback (Marcus Mariota).
The matchup drew 45,000 and received kudos aplenty. But over time, Santa Clara lost its luster.
We don’t expect that fate to befall the championship game in Las Vegas.
The location is too convenient for too many fans — as we saw Friday night with the massive Utah contingent that had merely to navigate the short flight or six-hour drive.
Santa Clara simply isn’t as accessible nor as attractive as Las Vegas.
The game will return to Allegiant Stadium next year. In the future, it could move to the L.A. Rams’ new stadium, SoFi, but the Pac-12 should make that move only if it wants to remind everyone why the game needs to be in Vegas every year.
3. The Cristobal Watch
The coaching carousel hasn’t stopped spinning, and the next development could be a big one: Miami is pursuing Oregon coach Mario Cristobal.
The reason: He was part of the program’s success, having played for the Hurricanes during their glory era in the early 1990s.
However the situation plays out, Cristobal will be vastly richer for it.
Miami is expected to offer at least $8 million annually, and the Ducks will undoubtedly match, or come close to matching, that offer.
In other words, Cristobal will be the second highest-paid coach in the conference if he stays, behind only Riley, whose deal with USC is private but believed to be in excess of $10 million annually.
4. Hardwood horrors
Developments have not been nearly as promising for the conference on the court.
Yes, UCLA, USC and Arizona have played well thus far and appear to be locks for the NCAA tournament. But the Pac-12 is extraordinarily top-heavy and middle-light.
The losses are mounting rapidly — to the point that they could severely undermine power ratings and limit the bid potential on Selection Sunday.
The Pac-12 has a paltry non-conference winning percentage of 63.3. It’s 3-9 against Power Six leagues and 2-8 against AP top-25 opponents.
What’s more, it experienced a COVID jolt this week.
Washington didn’t have enough healthy players to face Arizona or UCLA. The former has been rescheduled for January, but the latter will simply count as a forfeiture for the Huskies.
It’s the first major college game this season to be declared a forfeit because of COVID.
5. Final bowl projections
The CFP selection committee is, once again, living right. It got exactly the combination of results this weekend that were necessary for a controversy-free, four-team field.
— The most-likely semifinal matchups, as we see them:
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 CincinnatiNo. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia
Once the playoff field is announced Sunday at approximately 9 a.m., the committee will return to its boardroom and determine the New Year’s Six field.
— We expect the following:
Rose Bowl: Utah vs. Ohio StateSugar: Baylor vs. MississippiPeach: Pittsburgh vs. Michigan StateFiesta: Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame
After the New Year’s Six games are unveiled, the remaining bowls will set their matchups.
— For the Pac-12, we expect the following assignments:
Alamo: OregonLas Vegas: Arizona StateHoliday: UCLASun: Washington StateLA: Oregon State
We’ll assess the playoff decisions and bowl matchups in a column Sunday afternoon.
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