49ers’ 5 keys to winning in Seattle: No Deebo Samuel, no Fred Warner, no problem?
The last time the 49ers won four straight games, their 2019 juggernaut received a Super Bowl berth for it.
Sunday’s attempt at four consecutive wins merely will keep them on track for a wild-card playoff run, not that they’re boasting about their hot streak – yet.
“There’s always moments where you could stop and smell the roses,” Jimmy Garoppolo said, “but those moments go by pretty quickly. … We’re into December now, so this is when football really starts.”
This week brings an annual visit to the 49ers’ haunting ground: Seattle, where their only win in the past 10 trips saw that 2019 team clinch the NFC’s No. 1 seed en route to the Super Bowl
“When you look at a stadium and it’s built up like that, and the sound is just coming down on you the whole time and you feel the passion of hatred from their fans, that’s what football is supposed to be,” tight end George Kittle said. “We’re not supposed to like each other and you definitely feel that from their fans. That’s football.”
Kittle said his father relayed to him that the 49ers have lost 16 of 19 past visits to Seattle. But the 49ers (6-5) are red hot, and the Seahawks (3-8) are most certainly not. They’re looking to avoid their first four-game losing streak under 12th-year coach Pete Carroll.
The 49ers endured their own four-game skid in October, and it may have provided as much a lesson as their current success.
“Our young guys learned how bad the NFL is when you lose,” coach Kyle Shanahan said. “And some of them are seeing how much better life is coming to work and everything when you win.”
Here are five ways they can start December in victorious style:
FILL IN FOR DEEBO
Deebo Samuel racked up 295 receiving yards and 181 rushing yards – plus five touchdowns – in the 49ers’ four wins since Oct. 31. Such hybrid production will be irreplaceable, at least by one player, as he sits out this game with a groin strain.
Obviously, the 49ers want to keep running the ball and rookie Elijah Mitchell seems up to the task. But, without Samuel lurking as an option, the 49ers need others to contribute.
Last game, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Trent Sherfield and Kyle Juszczyk contributed key plays. All could take on increased roles.
You want an ‘X’ factor for this one? Try on Jeff Wilson Jr., whose physical running style made a thunderous introduction at Seattle in 2018. He hasn’t played in the two games there since then. He’s been eased into action the past three games as he comes back from May knee surgery, so, if Mitchell needs a spell, Wilson certainly could provide the extra punch as a third-down rusher or receiver.
RUSSELL’S LAST STAND?
Russell Wilson is 9-1 at home against the 49ers. However, he hasn’t won a game since rushing back last month from finger surgery, going 0-3 with a 55.7 completion percentage, two touchdowns and two interceptions. His stock has fallen so much that Seahawks reporters asked Carroll if Wilson should rest, to which the coach insisted Wilson just needs more reps.
Carroll also noted how well his 10th-year veteran continues to throw deep and while on the move – precisely the two areas that give the 49ers defense trouble.
“We can’t sleep on him or anybody on that team or anybody in the NFL,” defensive tackle D.J. Jones said. “Russell can come out and play his best game of the season. And we’ll play ours.”
Linebacker Fred Warner (hamstring) might miss a game for the first time in his four-year career, and with Dre Greenlaw unlikely to play, the 49ers need Azeez Al-Shaair, Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles and, if cleared from a concussion, Marcell Harris to patrol the underneath routes while keeping an eye on Wilson.
His future becoming increasingly uncertain, Wilson pleaded this offseason for better blocking, and he’s going to need it this game. The 49ers’ Nick Bosa already has a career-high 11 sacks on a surgically repaired knee. Look for Arik Armstead, Arden Key, Samson Ebukam, D.J. Jones and Kevin Givens to be in hot pursuit, too.
COVER DEEP
Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are on a touchdown drought, and the 49ers need to extend it.
Lockett hasn’t scored since producing three touchdowns in the first two games. Metcalf hasn’t found the end zone during their three-game losing streak, and he had just a 13-yard catch with a minute left Monday night.
But that speedy, Seahawks duo has dominated the 49ers in past meetings. Cornerbacks Josh Norman and Emmanuel Moseley must answer that challenge – and avoid penalties in the process.
“Those are two really good receivers and you’ve just got to make sure it’s not just those two versus each other,” Shanahan said. “Most corners, if you just go out and it’s one-on-one all day, I don’t care what the receiver is, they should eventually get you.”
So, Shanahan wants an intense pass rush and disguised coverages to limit Wilson’s chances, adding: “When he does have the good look, you have to make sure you come down with a few.”
Lockett has seven touchdowns in 12 games against the 49ers, including two in their fourth-quarter comeback for a 26-23 win in last season’s finale. Metcalf has drawn 54 targets and scored five touchdowns in five games against the 49ers.
The 49ers didn’t exactly shut down the Vikings’ tandem of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, as they caught 11 of 14 targets for 126 yards (and two Thielen touchdowns).
BETTER SPECIAL TEAMS
The 49ers didn’t coast to a win last Sunday, not when they allowed a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and missed a 42-yard field goal.
“Obviously we had a terrible play in the ball game and we can’t have that happen,” special teams coordinator Richard Hightower said of the kickoff return. “But we just go back to technique and fundamentals and basic. We have to make a tackle at all costs.”
Other special teams’ errors cost them dearly the last time they played the Seahawks, primarily because of Trenton Cannon’s two bumbled kickoff returns within a minute span. The 49ers did not have kicker Robbie Gould available that game of the three afterward because of a groin injury he sustained in warmups.
Gould made all seven field-goal attempts and 13 point-after kicks prior to last game’s 42-yard miss. “I know he’d love to have it back and we would all love to have it back, but we’ve got a ton of confidence in Robbie Gould,” Hightower added. “He’s made a number of game-winning kicks for us and we expect him to do it if it comes down to the wire in Seattle.”
The Seahawks’ offensive struggles have kept punter Michael Dickson busy, and he’s leading the league with 30 punts (out of 62) inside the 20-yard line. DeeJay Dallas had a 33-yard kick return against the 49ers last meeting.
HOG THE BALL
The Seahawks rank last in the league by averaging only 11 minutes, 57 minutes with the ball per game. In related news, they also rank last in converting just 32.5 percent of third-down plays.
To contrast how dominant the 49ers offense has been in its three-game win streak, it’s averaged 38:10 in time of possession, and it’s converted 19-of-38 third-down plays.
Garoppolo has come through with clutch passing on those third downs: 77 percent in Weeks 8-12, as compared to 31.4 percent Weeks 1-7, according to Pro Football Focus. That complements a rushing attack that’s been magnificent behind great blocking, all due respect to Mitchell and other rushers.
Said Carroll: “(Mitchell) has been right in the middle of all of it. Everyone that runs for them always looks good because they have a real commitment to it. They’re running the ball a ton.”
An underrated aspect of the Seahawks’ tailspin is their loss of running back Chris Carson, who sustained a season-ending neck injury in their Oct. 3 win at the 49ers. Veteran Adrian Peterson was signed this week as a potential option.
Will the Seahawks play out the string? Will they play spoiler? The 49ers can’t take them for granted, certainly not in Seattle.
* * *
Here are the 49ers’ streaks longer than two games since 2017:
2017: Lost 9, won 5
2018: Lost 6, lost 3
2019: Won 8, won 4*
2020: Lost 3, lost 3
2021: Lost 4, won 3
*Includes 2 playoff games
Streaks of other NFC West teams since 2017:
Cardinals: Won 3, 3, 7; Lost 4, 3, 4, 3, 6, 3
Rams: Won 4, 8, 3, 3, 3, 4; Lost 3, 3
Seahawks: Won 4, 4, 3, 5, 5, 4; Lost 3, 3
The Cardinals are bidding to become the fourth franchise in as many years to win the division after opening with an extended win streak (7-0). Past division champions: 2018 Rams (8-0; 13-3), 2019 49ers (8-0, 13-3), 2020 Seahawks (5-0, 12-4).