One stat shows just how unlucky Patrick Mahomes has been on interceptions this season
Every Chiefs fan will be quick to tell you that Patrick Mahomes has been incredibly unlucky this season. And now, he has the stats to prove it.
Since taking over as the Chiefs starting quarterback in 2018, Mahomes immediately emerged as a superstar. It wasn’t just how he was able to pull off throws that seemed impossible, but he’d also show an exceptional ability to avoid throwing interceptions.
That hasn’t been the case this season as Mahomes already has 11 interceptions after throwing 11 picks in 2019 and 2020 combined. But again, it really hasn’t been all Mahomes’ fault.
During Sunday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys, Mahomes was picked off by Jayron Kearse on a pass intended for Travis Kelce. The ball hit Kelce in the hands and stayed up for Kearse to make the pick.
Jayron Kearse is right there for the INT! #DallasCowboys
: #DALvsKC on FOX
: NFL app pic.twitter.com/pw5XegLcAL
— NFL (@NFL) November 21, 2021
It’s been a trend for Mahomes this season — and by little fault of his own. According to Next Gen Stats, that pick was the fifth Mahomes interception to hit off a Chiefs receiver this season. And six over those 11 interceptions had catch probabilities exceeding 75 percent.
Patrick Mahomes has had bad luck on his interceptions with a 75%+ completion probability, as five of the six hit a Chiefs receiver before being intercepted.
This pass hit Travis Kelce in the hands before Jayron Kearse came up with the INT.#KCvsDAL | #ChiefsKingdom
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 21, 2021
So while it’s easy to look at Mahomes’ interception total and say he’s had a down year, it’s important to look at the context. What’s happening to Mahomes this season is pretty rare — only Matt Ryan has had as many dropped-pass interceptions in a season. And Mahomes still has six more games to play.
At some point, though, you have to think Mahomes’ luck will turn around. The Chiefs are too talented to keep this trend going.