Next Bulgarian Parliament May Be Even More Fragmented - Poll
n the run-up to the November 14 snap parliamentary elections, held hand-in-hand with presidential elections, a likelihood emerges for an even more pronounced fragmentation of the political space and a Parliament with seven parties, according to the latest opinion poll which was financed and implemented jointly by the commercial bTV and the Market Links polling agency. The survey was conducted among 1,076 adults in September 14-20, in a face-to-face interview and online polling.
If elections were held now, the GERB-UDF coalition will have a much bigger headway than the formations coming after it, and will likely be the categorical winner. Five parties are likely to win between 10 and 15 per cent, which suggests fierce election campaigning. Four of these parties: There is Such a People, the Bulgarian Socialist Party, Democratic Bulgaria, and Continue the Change, have the potential of emerging as the second-biggest formation in the new Parliament.
Continue the Change draws votes from most of the parties represented in the previous 46th National Assembly with the exception of the Movements for Rights and Freedoms, and also attracts votes from some of the people who did not go to the polls at the last elections.
Although with good mobilization of voters, Rise UP BG! Here We Come! has lost support and is currently in the risky area of the four per cent threshold for entry in Parliament.
The Vazrazhdane [Revival] party too is close to four per cent.
The 2-in-1 elections seem a factor for an increase in people's intention to vote, at the background of an overall dissatisfaction with the ongoing political crisis. The higher turnout works in favour of the parties with lower voter mobilization and of formations who attract the so-called protest votes.
The political parties have been in the mode of election campaigning since before the dissolution of the 46th National Assembly. GERB's conduct as an opposition to the President and the caretaker government appointed thereby yields results so that 82 per cent of the party's supporters state they will go to the polls on November 14.
Democratic Bulgaria is one of the parties with traditionally highly-mobilized electorate which is confirmed in the present situation as well.
The relatively low current standing in terms of voter mobilization of the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms could be described as a surprise with significance for the the two's actual performance on election day.
Continue the Change is with low voter mobilization which is characteristic of a new political player. As a rule, this poses a risk for lower-than-expected actual election performance but one should remember the recent example with the good showing of There is Such a People at the previous elections who started off from a similar position. Market Links notes that Continue the Change is liked by a considerable portion of the people, and also recognized by some of the parties expected to be part of the next government.
Regarding the presidential poll, the main political forces are yet to nominate their runners. On the other hand, the strong standing of the incumbent President, Rumen Radev, makes the outcome of the elections more or less foretold which could have a demobilizing effect on some of the voters, Market Links notes. ZH
n the run-up to the November 14 snap parliamentary elections, held hand-in-hand with presidential elections, a likelihood emerges for an even more pronounced fragmentation of the political space and a Parliament with seven parties, according to the latest opinion poll which was financed and implemented jointly by the commercial bTV and the Market Links polling agency. The survey was conducted among 1,076 adults in September 14-20, in a face-to-face interview and online polling.
If elections were held now, the GERB-UDF coalition will have a much bigger headway than the formations coming after it, and will likely be the categorical winner. Five parties are likely to win between 10 and 15 per cent, which suggests fierce election campaigning. Four of these parties: There is Such a People, the Bulgarian Socialist Party, Democratic Bulgaria, and Continue the Change, have the potential of emerging as the second-biggest formation in the new Parliament.
Continue the Change draws votes from most of the parties represented in the previous 46th National Assembly with the exception of the Movements for Rights and Freedoms, and also attracts votes from some of the people who did not go to the polls at the last elections.
Although with good mobilization of voters, Rise UP BG! Here We Come! has lost support and is currently in the risky area of the four per cent threshold for entry in Parliament.
The Vazrazhdane [Revival] party too is close to four per cent.
The 2-in-1 elections seem a factor for an increase in people's intention to vote, at the background of an overall dissatisfaction with the ongoing political crisis. The higher turnout works in favour of the parties with lower voter mobilization and of formations who attract the so-called protest votes.
The political parties have been in the mode of election campaigning since before the dissolution of the 46th National Assembly. GERB's conduct as an opposition to the President and the caretaker government appointed thereby yields results so that 82 per cent of the party's supporters state they will go to the polls on November 14.
Democratic Bulgaria is one of the parties with traditionally highly-mobilized electorate which is confirmed in the present situation as well.
The relatively low current standing in terms of voter mobilization of the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms could be described as a surprise with significance for the the two's actual performance on election day.
Continue the Change is with low voter mobilization which is characteristic of a new political player. As a rule, this poses a risk for lower-than-expected actual election performance but one should remember the recent example with the good showing of There is Such a People at the previous elections who started off from a similar position. Market Links notes that Continue the Change is liked by a considerable portion of the people, and also recognized by some of the parties expected to be part of the next government.
Regarding the presidential poll, the main political forces are yet to nominate their runners. On the other hand, the strong standing of the incumbent President, Rumen Radev, makes the outcome of the elections more or less foretold which could have a demobilizing effect on some of the voters, Market Links notes./BTA