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MLB Betting Guide for April 19th

Another exciting weekend of baseball is in the books after a low-scoring Sunday slate of games. Only three of the games went over the total, and four games ended with an exact score of 1-0 or 2-0. We’re betting on that trend to work the other way with a couple of overs highlighted in today’s MLB betting guide.

Here are the plays from FanDuel Sportsbook!

Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals, Moneyline, Total, and Odds


Moneyline: Nationals +108, Cardinals -126

Spread: Nationals +1.5 (-156), Cardinals -1.5 (+130)

Total: o8 -112

Odds to Win the World Series: Nationals +3500|Cardinals +2500

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

Washinton Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals News, Analysis, and Picks


It’s been a hell of a start for Joe Ross, but he should come back to reality against the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday night. It’s the second straight start against the Cards for Ross, who has yet to allow a run in 11.0 inning pitched to start the season.

This season, Ross has pitched to a 2.34 fielding independent pitching below his expected value of 3.60. Ross has managed to strand all nine baserunners he’s allowed this season but is on an unsustainable path. It won’t be long before his actual metrics catch up with their expected values, and we’re betting that happens tonight.

Ross is a fastball pitcher who keeps batters off-balance with a slider and mixes in an occasional changeup 11.5% of the time. The Cards saw his pitches five days ago and will be well prepared with what to expect against a pitcher who relies primarily on two pitches. Ross will have a hard time replicating the success he had against the Cards last week with his three-pitch repertoire.

After a rough first outing, Jack Flaherty has settled in over his last two starts. Flaherty limited the Washington Nationals to three hits over five innings of one-run ball in his last start while striking out six. It was the second straight game in which Flaherty struck out six and allowed fewer than 1.00 walks and hits per inning pitcher. But there are a few indicators to be wary of tonight.

First, there is a drop-off with Flaherty’s road splits that implies that he won’t be as successful tonight. Opponents hit for an average of .318 when Flaherty starts on the road and his earned run average jumps to 4.01 from 2.76 at home. Second, Flaherty tends to allow home runs as he gives up 1.21 home runs per inning pitched; and Nationals Park has the third-worst Park Factor rating for long balls. Lastly, even though Flaherty’s arsenal of pitches is more comprehensive than Ross’s, the Nats saw him last week and will be prepared for his offerings.

We’re expecting the Cards to get out to an early lead against the Nationals, forcing the Nats to keep up. These teams combined for 52 hits and 23 walks over their three-game series last week, but only one of their games went over the total. Increased output should help this one get over the low total with the Cards coming out on top.

The Bets: Cardinals -124, Over 8 -112

Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays, Moneyline, Total, and Odds


Moneyline: Royals -118, Rays +100

Spread: Royals +1.5 (-215), Rays -1.5 (+176)

Total: o7.5 -114

Odds to Win the World Series: Royals +10000|Rays +3000

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays News, Analysis, and Picks


The Kansas City Royals versus the Tampa Bay Rays is the other game we are picking to go over the total tonight. The total is set at 7.5 but has been bought up slightly to -114. In reviewing some of these team’s metrics, there’s reason to believe this one gets over the number.

The Royals have hit lefties hard to start the season. With Josh Fleming projected as the starter, that could mean that Kansas City has some pitches to feast on. As a team, the Royals are slugging .441 against lefties this season, but three players do most of the damage.

Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana, and Nicky Lopez all have an on-base plus slugging percentage above 1.000. The three of them have also combined for three of the four home runs the Royals have against lefties. One of the Royals’ biggest advantages is getting their runners into scoring position, and that doesn’t have to do exclusively with contact. Kansas City has stolen eight bases on 10 attempts against left-handed pitchers, giving them a leg up on putting runs on the board.

Rays’ bats came to life against the New York Yankees this weekend. The Rays put up 18 runs over the three-game series and should get to Danny Duffy, who is pitching above his metrics to start the season.

Duffy is giving up more fly balls but fewer home runs, which is somewhat counterintuitive. Duffy’s ground ball percentage is down to 29.4%, from his career average of 36.5%. His home run to fly ball ratio has also decreased to 7.1% to start the season, although his career average is 10.2%, and he’s been at 13.0% or higher over the last two seasons. The Rays have more than a few right-handed sluggers who can further the over cause.

The Rays are right behind the Royals in slugging percentage against lefties at .425. Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, and Manuel Margot are all right-handed bats that can put a charge into the ball. Willie Adames leads the team in home runs against lefties, with two, and Mike Zunino leads the team in doubles with two. From top to bottom, there will be too many bats to avoid in this lineup.

We’re expecting runs in this lefty versus lefty matchup. Both teams feature power bats that can do some damage against lefties. These bullpens had a heavy workload this weekend, meaning the starters could be hung out to dry longer than anticipated. Over is the play.

The Bet: Over 7.5 -114

 

The post MLB Betting Guide for April 19th first appeared on SportsGrid.




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