Add news
March 2010
April 2010
May 2010June 2010July 2010
August 2010
September 2010October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011March 2011April 2011May 2011June 2011July 2011August 2011September 2011October 2011November 2011December 2011January 2012February 2012March 2012April 2012May 2012June 2012July 2012August 2012September 2012October 2012November 2012December 2012January 2013February 2013March 2013April 2013May 2013June 2013July 2013August 2013September 2013October 2013November 2013December 2013January 2014February 2014March 2014April 2014May 2014June 2014July 2014August 2014September 2014October 2014November 2014December 2014January 2015February 2015March 2015April 2015May 2015June 2015July 2015August 2015September 2015October 2015November 2015December 2015January 2016February 2016March 2016April 2016May 2016June 2016July 2016August 2016September 2016October 2016November 2016December 2016January 2017February 2017March 2017April 2017May 2017June 2017July 2017August 2017September 2017October 2017November 2017December 2017January 2018February 2018March 2018April 2018May 2018June 2018July 2018August 2018September 2018October 2018November 2018December 2018January 2019February 2019March 2019April 2019May 2019June 2019July 2019August 2019September 2019October 2019November 2019December 2019January 2020February 2020March 2020April 2020May 2020June 2020July 2020August 2020September 2020October 2020November 2020December 2020January 2021February 2021March 2021April 2021May 2021
News Every Day |

NBA Betting Guide for 4/19/21: 3 Totals to Target for Monday’s Slate

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight’s games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics

I always love it when a plan comes together when the betting public and our algorithm agree on a particular line.

We have that here on the over for the Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics game in Boston (215.5 points).

Our algorithm is rating the over as a four-star recommendation out of five and considers this game 70.7% likely to hit the over. That’s good for a 35.0% expected return on investment. Our median projected score for this game is 226.4, well over that 215.5 number.

The betting public is also heavily on the over here (which isn’t that surprising because overs tend to get a lot more love), but we’re seeing 77% of the tickets and 78% of the money on the over. That’s substantial.

Zach LaVine is listed as out, but the Bulls have been pretty over-friendly without him and with Nikola Vucevic over 172.0 minutes: a 113.3 offensive rating and a 120.4 defensive rating.

For Boston, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker are questionable. Without those two but with Jayson Tatum on the court, the Celtics do drop off: a 109.5 offensive rating and a 111.7 defensive rating.

Using that data from the relevant samples, my model still projects a 222.6-point median outcome.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Washington Wizards

We are seeing some massive smart money trends on the over in this game (230.5). oddsFire is indicating that 35% of the betting tickets are on the over — but that includes 61% of the money. That’s a massive differential of 26 percentage points.

The over/under opened at 229.5 but is up just a point, so we can still grab it with plenty of value.

Over the past 15 games, these two teams are both bottom-five in offensive rating (the Washington Wizards are 26th at 106.6, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are 30th at 99.8), but weak defenses and top-three paces in that split are clearly driving bettors to the over. That and a Russell Westbrook revenge spot.

numberFire’s algorithm isn’t taking a side here, but it’s rare to see a 26-point gap in money versus tickets, so the smart money is probably worth tracking here.

San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers

We already discussed two overs, but for this game, things are pointing to the under (230.5).

The algorithm is identifying it as a two-star recommendation out of five and considers the under 60.3% likely to hit here, which leads to an expected return of 15.0%. In total, the median projection for this game comes out to just 225.5.

Of note, 21 of the 25 most comparable games — the games with the most similar game conditions, such as team composition and betting lines — to this one in numberFire’s database wound up staying under the total.

It’s rare to see unders getting hammered in the NBA, but we’re getting that in this game. oddsFire indicates that 27% of the tickets and 35% of the bets are on the over, leaving 65% of the money and 73% of the bets on the under.

The over/under has ticked down from 232.0 to 230.5, but it’s still too high, according to our algorithm — and the public.

The post NBA Betting Guide for 4/19/21: 3 Totals to Target for Monday’s Slate first appeared on SportsGrid.

Read also

India: Banerjee’s Big Victory Gives Opposition Hope To Challenge Modi – Analysis

Woman accused of setting fire to occupied house, watching from front yard

Britain Is Taking Its F-35B Stealth Fighters to War Against ISIL

News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here
News Every Day

Access Premium Quality Maths Homework Help And Case Study Help from GotoAssignmentHelp for Top Academic Grades