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MLB Betting Guide for April 2nd

The buzz from Opening Day still hasn’t worn off, but thankfully for us, we get baseball nearly every day between now and the end of September. As is standard practice, there is a lull on the second day of the season, but that isn’t stopping us from finding value on the betting board.

Here are the plays from FanDuel Sportsbook!

Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Marlins -110, Rays -106

Spread: Marlins +1.5 (-205), Rays -1.5 (+168)

Total: o7.5 -120

Odds to Win the World Series: Marlins +6500|Rays +2500

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays News, Analysis, and Picks

We should have expected a 1-0 score in yesterday’s contest between the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays. Both starters have a knack for limiting batting orders and feature lineups that will be underwhelming at times this season. But, we’re taking what we learned yesterday and are applying it to today’s game.

Ryan Yarbrough will be the Rays starter on day two of the season. The Rays deployed Yarbrough as an opener at times last season, but he showed in his starts that he has the stuff to get down the batting order on a few occasions. Yarbrough pitched to a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP last year, which was on par with his xERA of 3.98. Yarbrough’s best asset is his ability to pitch to soft contact. He gave up 0.81 home runs per nine innings last season and had a 10.2% home run to fly ball ratio. It also helps that he struck out 7.1 per nine innings.

The Marlins counter with Pablo Lopez, who was absolutely sensational at home last season. Lopez had a 2.56 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and held opponents to a .222 batting average in 2020. Lopez also draws a lot of soft contact, as evidenced by his 0.63 home runs per nine innings and 52.2% ground ball rate. Lopez’s strikeout stuff is better than Yarbrough’s, striking out 9.3 per nine-innings.

Both pitchers should find their groove early and limit the damage once again. The Marlins hit lefties hard last season, and that will be the difference in this one. We’re taking the Marlins to win as modest -110 favorites and picking this one to stay under the total.

The Bets: Marlins moneyline (-110), under 7.5 (-120)

Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Rockies +210, Dodgers -255

Spread: Rockies +1.5 (+130), Dodgers -1.5 (-156)

Total: o11.5 -110

Odds to Win the World Series: Rockies +15000|Dodgers +350

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers News, Analysis, and Picks

The Colorado Rockies ruined the Los Angeles Dodgers championship tour by hammering them on Opening Day 8-5. We’re expecting some pushback from the reigning Champs on the second day of the season.

Antonio Senzatela gets the nod for the Rockies after an impressive 2020 campaign in which he posted a 3.44 ERA and went 3-3. A closer inspection of some of his advanced metrics suggests that 2021 might be a bumpy ride for the fifth-year vet.

Senzatela had a 4.64 xERA and 4.81 xFIP last season, which were both above his actual ERA. His home splits from last season, relative to career averages, are another indicator that he’s due for regression. In five home starts in 2020, Senzatela had a 2.10 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Throughout his career, Senzatela has a 4.94 ERA and 1.41 WHIP pitching at Coors Field, giving up 1.2 home runs per nine innings.

The Dodgers showed yesterday that their offense is one of the best in the league, and they should be able to get to Senzatela. The same won’t be true for the Rockies getting to Trevor Bauer.

Despite playing in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors, Colorado slugged only .400 against righties last season, and that was with Nolan Arenado in their lineup. Now, they have to try and get to Bauer, who set career-highs in strikeouts per nine innings (12.3) and xERA (2.13) last season. Although Bauer will have a hard time repeating those metrics, he’s shown that he is an elite pitcher throughout his career, and now he’s enjoying his prime years.

We’re expecting more liveliness from the Dodgers bats, but the Rockies’ offense to sputter against Bauer. Tonight’s a good spot to back the Dodgers on the moneyline.

The Bet: Dodgers moneyline (-255)

The post MLB Betting Guide for April 2nd first appeared on SportsGrid.

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