NBA Defensive Player of the Year: Updated Futures Odds and Analysis
A pair of big movers up the odds board and a pair sliding downward is the big story in the Defensive Player of the Year futures market.
Let’s dive into the updated odds.
Top 10 Odds for Defensive Player of the Year
- Rudy Gobert -210 / Feb. 1 – +300
- Ben Simmons +260 / Feb. 1 – +950
- Myles Turner +350 / Feb. 1 – +350
- Joel Embiid +1100 / Feb. 1 – +1000
- Anthony Davis +1400 / Feb. 1 – +190
- Giannis Antetokounmpo +1400 / Feb. 1 – +750
- Draymond Green +4900 / Feb. 1 – +5500
- Bam Adebayo +6500 / Feb. 1 – +1600
- Kawhi Leonard +6500 / Feb. 1 – +3300
- Mitchell Robinson +8500 / Feb. 1 – +10000
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
The Analysis
In addition to sliding out of contention in the MVP race, Anthony Davis is falling fast from the odds on favorite to win the DPOY. The last time we checked in with you just over a month ago, Davis led the pack getting better than 2-1 odds to take the trophy. What a difference a month can make. AD hasn’t played a game since February 14 and is expected to miss at least a few more weeks with a calf injury, all but dashing his chances at the award. Hence his slide to +1400 and drop from the favorite to number five on the board.
Bam Adebayo is the other player to take a significant dip in the market, going from +1600 to a big longshot at +6500. Adebayo actually had a pretty good month of February on the defensive end, putting up 1.3 blocks and 1.0 steals per game. He also remains an elite post defender and just a versatile all-around stopper. He’s also been a critical contributor turning around the Heat as they reached .500 at the break after a horrible early season rocked by COVID and injuries.
Rudy Gobert took the most significant jump taking the massive lead atop the odds board. The big Frenchman went from almost 3-1 odds to a near valueless -210, forcing wagerists to risk big to come away with any sort of meaningful profit. Gobert’s deservedly made the move as the Jazz have become the top team in the league while Rudy ranks second in the league in rebounds and blocked shots. He also tops the league in defensive win shares and defensive rebounds. Gobert went into the break in style with a dominant five-block performance against the Pelicans just days before playing in the All-Star game. While there may not be much value, it is undoubtedly the Jazz big man’s award to lose, and it looks like a third DPOY in his near future.
Ben Simmons is the other player to jump his odds, going from +950 to +260, so hats off to those who got in at nearly 10-1. Simmons has been a big part of getting the Sixers the best record in the East and the league’s fifth-best opponents’ team field goal percentage. He leads the team with 1.6 steals per game while adding nearly eight boards a night and has shown he can guard any position on the floor. Simmons is here because he’s an elite on the court defender, something that’s not always reflected in the paper world of statistics. He may lose some votes to teammate Joel Embiid who sits just two spots back on the DPOY odds board, and it remains to be seen if either man will miss time after COVID contact tracing kept them out of the All-Star game.
Myles Turner remains the quiet number three in this market at +350 without moving from last month. He continues his healthy lead as the league’s top shot-blocker averaging almost a block more per game than any other player coming away with 3.4 swats a night. Turner ranks eighth in DWS and grabs a steal a game but is hurt by his poor rebounding numbers and because his defensive stats have continually dropped since a torrid start to the season. Still, if you got him at +3300 at the beginning of the season, you have to be happy.
For some reason, Clint Capela isn’t getting much respect dropping right out of the top-ten to +10000 from +5500 despite leading the league in rebounding. Capela is pulling down 14.2 boards a night, more than a rebound better than Gobert, and two rebounds better than the third-place player in the category. The Hawks middleman is also third in the NBA with 2.2 blocks per game while adding nearly a steal a night.
Who knows what will happen in the next 30 days, but make sure you join us in April to reevaluate the NBA’s top defender race.