National League Cy Young Award Futures Odds and Analysis
The National League highlights several of the majors’ top aces, giving fans appointment viewing weekly (and sometimes daily). Here a few early season favorites in a crowded field to take home one of the MLB’s top honors, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top 10 National League Cy Young Award Odds
- Jacob deGrom +380
- Trevor Bauer +700
- Max Scherzer +1000
- Walker Buehler +1000
- Aaron Nola +1200
- Yu Darvish +1200
- Jack Flaherty +1300
- Luis Castillo +1500
- Blake Snell +2000
- Stephen Strasburg +2000
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
Current Odds: +1000
Max Scherzer was one of the most dominant pitchers in the majors, even in a pandemic-shortened injury-plagued season. He ranked fourth in K/9, behind Shane Beiber, Jacob deGrom, and Trevor Bauer, with a 12.30. Starting 12 games for the Nationals, Scherzer posted a 5-4 record, pitching 67.1 innings. Although last season’s 3.79 ERA was the third-worst of his career, he ranked in the top 10 in K% at 32.1% and had a 7.8% walk percentage.
Using primarily a four-pitch mix of fastball (46%), slider (18.2%), changeup (16.9%) and curve (5.4%), he has no problem throwing heat with a four-seam that averages 95 MPH. However, his breaking pitches, mainly the slider, result in the most strikeouts. Last season, his slider resulted in a 39% K percentage, a 30% PutAway %, and a 50.4% Whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant.
If Scherer can stay healthy, he will remain in the conversation to pick up his third Cy Young of his career, last winning in 2017.
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
Current Odds: +380
The 2018 and 2019 NL Cy Young winner looks to reclaim the crown, despite another dominant season. He led the National League in K/9 with 13.76 by 1.43 strikeouts. Starting in 12 games for the Mets last season, he posted a 4-2 record, with a 2.38 ERA, a 38.8% K% and 6.7% walk percentage. deGrom pitched 68 innings last season, primarily using a four-pitch mix of fastball (45%), slider (35%), changeup (17%) and curve (2%).
His flame-throwing four-seam fastball is one of the fastest in the league, averaging 99 MPH last season, resulting in an opposing batting average of .186 and a 42.6% K rate. deGrom is also crafty with his breaking pitches. His changeup and slider resulted in a 42.9% and a 44.6% Whiff percentage, respectively.
With a full 162-game season, deGrom will continue to strike out opposing batters at will and should remain among the odds-on favorite to win the Cy Young for the third time.
Trevor Bauer, Los Angeles Dodgers
Current Odds: +700
The reigning National League Cy Young award winner, Trevor Bauer, will be the constant topic of conversation this season. Signing a three-year $102 million contract with the Dodgers, after spending last season with the Cincinnati Reds, Bauer receives an instant park upgrade by playing his home games at Dodger Stadium. Skewing more toward pitchers, Dodger Stadium had a park factor of .938, putting it in the bottom 10. The change in scenery creates a stark difference from Great American Ballpark, which ranked as the fourth-most friendly batters’ ballpark with a park factor of 1.271
Bauer’s 1.73 ERA led the majors last season. He started 11 games for the Reds, posting a 5-4 record and was instrumental in their appearance in the postseason. He also recorded two complete-game shutouts last season, a 111-pitch, seven strikeout performance against the Detroit Tigers on Aug. 8 and a 97-pitch, nine strikeout win against the Kansas City Royals on Aug. 19.
A master of pitch design, Bauer relies on five main pitches—a four-seam fastball (41%), cutter (19%), slider (16.5%), curveball (15.7%) and sinker (7%). His fastball averages 93 MPH and last season resulted in an opponent batting average of .140, 39.4% K-rate and a 29.7% PutAway rate.
Bauer will keep things interesting in the CY Young race and stand out among a crowded Dodgers rotation of Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urías and David Price. Expect Bauer to also be among the leaders in strikeouts this season.