WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued:
This Winter Storm Watch goes into effect on Sunday night until Tuesday early afternoon. The main threat with this watch is for snowfall. However it is possible we could see this expanded, upgraded, and or additional watches and advisories issued out east.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
The coldest of the air remains far to our west, but we are going to get cooler this weekend. In fact, the normal highs should be around 40 now, but most of the weekend will be 10-15 degrees below normal, with highs on Monday nearly 20° below normal.
Saturday will mainly be a cloudy day, there are still some minor signals for a few light snow showers late on Saturday, but this should not bring any kind of big issues. Temps will fall back into the teens Saturday night, and Sunday will start cooler.
By lunch or midday on Sunday we will be mostly cloudy to partly sunny and chilly with temps in the lower 20s. We will have highs only in the middle 20s on Sunday, the 9th straight day with below freezing temps.
Sunday night well after sunset, we will start to see some moisture come up into our area, with light snow showers expected overnight and into Monday morning, with a bit of sleet possible on the east and southeast side of this moisture.
This will likely slow things down for the President's Day Monday morning commute with a light fresh accumulation. This moisture will push northeast and a dry slot will form later morning Monday into the mid afternoon hours before the low from the southwest moves up into our area.
Monday late afternoon to the evening hours (think Monday evening commute) will be directly impacted as moisture will stream back up into our area.
What will complicate this forecast is the position of the low, and where some warmer air could mix in and create and even slicker wintry mix. This appears to be in our east/southeast part of our area.
Monday night into the overnight hours as the low moves across our area, we will see the wettest moisture (heaviest) moving into our area. This is where we could see our most moderate/heavy snowfall, and freezing rain/sleet/mix to the east.
By Tuesday morning the low will begin to pull far enough away that we will see snow showers tapering off through the morning commute, and by mid to late morning, with cooler air moving through our area on the backside.
HOW MUCH SNOWFALL TO EXPECT:
First off, this is the forecast snowfall for the entire event, starting Sunday night and going through Tuesday morning. The reason the lowest numbers are in the south/southeast/east is because this is the area that I am expecting more of a wintry mix.
So yes, the numbers look better in the south, on the flip side, these areas might end up having the best chance of sleet/freezing rain Monday-Monday overnight, which is almost worse news. The highest totals will be along & northwest of I-71, where temps will remain cold enough to keep it as snow through the event.
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE THIS WEEKEND:
Right now the storm system is still quite far away from us, and will be making quite a journey before heading our way. It will be causing headaches for a good portion of the country as currently there are winter weather related advisories across a lot of the country.
A small shift in this storm track over the next few days can and most likely will require adjustments to the areas that see the highest snowfall totals, and which areas may or will see a wintry mix as we head into next week. Storm Team 4 will continue to monitor closely this system, and make any needed adjustments to our forecast on-air and online.
Stay tuned, and be prepared. Another weather system will quickly follow behind this system for Wednesday into Thursday of next week as well. With temps running below freezing for a week and a half to almost 2 weeks by the time these systems roll through, melting will not be a major helper to clear our roads ????