Bryan Cranston (‘Your Honor’) could surprise at SAG Awards with an ‘All the Way’-style nomination and upset victory

Four years ago Bryan Cranston pulled off a huge upset at the Screen Actors Guild Awards in the TV movie/limited series acting category, winning for HBO’s “All the Way.” Lightning could strike twice for him in the same category this year for his performance in Showtime’s limited series “Your Honor,” in which Cranston plays a New Orleans judge who violates his own ethical standards to save his son from the brutal consequences of an accidental crime.

Currently ranked seventh in our combined odds based on the predictions of over 1,700 Gold Derby users as of this writing, Cranston sits two slots outside of our predicted line-up, which currently includes last year’s Emmy winner Mark Ruffalo (“I Know This Much Is True”), Ethan Hawke (“The Good Lord Bird”), Hugh Grant (“The Undoing”), Hugh Jackman (“Bad Education”), and Brendan Gleeson (“The Comey Rule”). Paul Mescal (“Normal People”) is currently sixth, joining Cranston on the bubble for a nomination.

SEE Bryan Cranston on playing a parent at a crossroads in ‘Your Honor’: ‘How do I keep my child safe?’

Since the debut of “Your Honor,” though, Cranston has been gaining traction in the race, leapfrogging Jeff Daniels (“The Comey Rule”) to move one step closer to the nomination. The miniseries received mixed reviews from critics — it now holds a 60 on Metacritic and 44% freshness on Rotten Tomatoes — but the show is a huge success with audiences. The premiere of “Your Honor” marked the highest-rated debut for a Showtime limited drama series in the premium channel’s history, outpacing “The Comey Rule.” That could benefit him against Gleeson and Daniels, who played former President Donald J. Trump and former FBI Director James Comey, respectively.

Even without that edge in viewership, his current place in our odds doesn’t wholly reflect just how much the Screen Actors Guild adores Cranston. The veteran has 12 nominations to date, which far outstrips his popularity at the Golden Globes and even the Emmys, where he has earned 7 and 11 nominations as an actor, respectively. He even has more performance victories at SAG than the Emmys, with five trophies as an individual or ensemble member from the guild — for “All the Way,” “Breaking Bad,” and “Argo” — versus four acting Emmys for his iconic role as Walter White. Albeit those nom and win counts at SAG include his film roles, which aren’t eligible at the Emmys.

SEE Bryan Cranston (‘Your Honor’): Will another dark role scare up winter awards nominations?

While Cranston may just score the SAG nomination this year for “Your Honor,” a repeat of his 2017 victory may prove more difficult. His win for “All the Way” could also be chalked up just as much to vote-splitting between his fellow nominees Courtney B. Vance and Sterling K. Brown (“The People v. O.J. Simpson”) and John Turturro and Riz Ahmed (“The Night Of”). He might not have that benefit this time around. If he does get the nomination, though, it may be foolish to underestimate just how much his fellow actors admire him when it comes time to pick the winner.

PREDICT the 2021 SAG Awards nominees through February 4

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