01/17/2021 News & Commentary - Korea

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

1. A Message to the Incoming Biden Administration - Pay Attention to North Korea

2. Kim Jong Un Offers a Rare Sneak Peek at North Korea's Weapons Program

3. Key Results of The Eighth Party Congress in North Korea (Part 1 of 2)

4. North Korea Plans to Further Develop its Nuclear Strike Capabilities Despite Economic Constraints

5. North Korea's Newest Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile, Same as the Old One?

6. When dealing with North Korea, human rights must take priority

7. North Korea's Missiles and Nuclear Weapons: Everything You Need to Know

8. South Koreans' Negative View of China is Nothing New, but is Getting Worse

9. Does North Korea's Kim Jong-un have a nuclear surprise for President Biden?

10. China 'inflamed' North Korea fury over border dispute as Kim gives nuclear green light

11. North Korea flaunts new weapons amid Washington, D.C., turmoil

12. Japan-Korea comfort women controversy re-erupts

13. New virus cases in 500s for 6th day; tougher curbs partially eased

14. S. Korea officially invited as guest nation to G-7 summit in Britain

15. Seoul's new envoy to Tokyo committed to "political" solution to historical conflicts

16. 'South Korea widens gap with North in military strength'

17. North Korea set for Supreme People's Assembly session following party congress

18. Experts split over NK's nuclear missile threat

19. S. Korea's economy anticipates synergy with 'Bidenomics'

20. U.S. author takes on Korean icon in 'King Sejong the Great'

1. A Message to the Incoming Biden Administration - Pay Attention to North Korea

hrnkinsider.org · by George Hutchinson

From my good friend George Hutchinson.  We must be concerned with the full range of threats posed by north Korea - direct and indirect.

2. Kim Jong Un Offers a Rare Sneak Peek at North Korea's Weapons Program

WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin

My comments below, among others.

3. Key Results of The Eighth Party Congress in North Korea (Part 1 of 2)

38north.org · by Ruediger Frank · January 15, 2021

Some analysis we overlook as we focus on security issues only (though with north Korea every issues a security issues.  Regarding state over market; politics over economy we should remember that it is the party over the state and everything else in north Korea.

Key points from Ruediger Frank:

1) The Congress took place at an unusual time, lasted longer and had more attendants than before.

2) Self-critical remarks were scaled back.

3) State over market, politics over economy: no signs of economic reform.

4) The focus is internal. Trade and tourism play only a minor role.

5) Metal and chemical industries identified as the key elements of economic development: a North Korean version of Park Chung-hee's Heavy and Chemical Industry Drive?

6) Agriculture: renewed emphasis on state distribution?

7) Afforestation got an extraordinarily high level of attention.

8) Cement production is at lower levels than in 1970.

9) Focus on rural areas and the local level: a North Korean version of the New Village Movement?

10) Development of mobile communications, cable broadcasting and commercial service.

11) Plans to create a nuclear power industry.

4. North Korea Plans to Further Develop its Nuclear Strike Capabilities Despite Economic Constraints

38north.org · by Olli Heinonen · January 15, 2021

This should be no surprise.  I think nuclear weapons are in the DNA of the Kim family regime.  It cannot be extricated as it is part of the very nature if not the soul of the regime.

One of the things we need to do is to continue to try to constrain growth of the nuclear program by limited resources to the regime.   But even if the growth is slow than anticipated it is still growing and there is no sign that the regime will ever give them up so we must proceed based on that fundamental assumption as well as the assumptions about the nature and objectives (near and long term) of the regime. 

Excerpts:

North Korea's nuclear plans, while they may be constrained by limited resources, are likely aimed at establishing a fait accompli in advance of possible denuclearization talks with the Biden administration and increasing the North's leverage in these negotiations. The debate in Pyongyang over its nuclear program will continue on Sunday, January 19, with the meeting of the Supreme People's Assembly, which traditionally blesses the decisions of the WPK Congress.

The new DPRK five-year economic plan should help to inform the new Biden administration's review of North Korea policy. Although the continued growth of the North's nuclear capabilities is a major concern, the slower-than-anticipated progress of their nuclear programs suggests there may be time to conduct a comprehensive review and to engage with regional parties on developing a common approach to the North Korean nuclear problem.

5. North Korea's Newest Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile, Same as the Old One?

38north.org · by Ruediger Frank · January 15, 2021

My question is why did they only show us (what may only be a mock-up) of "new" SLBMs and not the new (which also may only have been a mock-up on October 10th) ICBM?

6. When dealing with North Korea, human rights must take priority

christianpost.com · by Arielle Del Turco · January 15, 2021

Human rights are a national security issue as well as a moral imperative.  And one key to human rights is getting information to the Korean people living in the north.

This conclusion is of course the ideal and certainly something we would like to see but it is unlikely to happen. Therefore, we must seek the solution to the Korea question to not only solve the human rights issue but the nuclear threat as well.

Conclusion: As an incoming U.S. presidential administration crafts its foreign policy priorities for the next four years, the North Korean religious freedom and human rights situation should occupy a prominent position. A transformed North Korea that poses no threat to the rest of the world ultimately requires a North Korean government that respects its people and allows them to live according to their consciences.

7.  North Korea's Missiles and Nuclear Weapons: Everything You Need to Know

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-koreas-missiles-and-nuclear-weapons-everything-you-need-to-know-11610712018 - Timothy W. Martin – 15 January 2021

Some useful graphics at the link.

Excerpt:

What is President-elect Joe Biden's stance on North Korea?

Mr. Biden has advocated mixing pressure with what he calls principled diplomacy. He has declared an end to holding summits without preconditions, which he said amounts to embracing a thug. Mr. Biden said he would sit down with Mr. Kim only if Pyongyang were sincere and pledged to reduce its nuclear arsenal.

North Korea hasn't acknowledged Mr. Biden's election victory. This month Mr. Kim called the U.S. his country's biggest enemy.  North Korean state media last mentioned Mr. Biden by name in 2019, when it called him a "fool of low I.Q." and compared him to a rabid dog that "must be beaten to death."

8. South Koreans' Negative View of China is Nothing New, but is Getting Worse

pacforum.org – by Jaewoo Choo

The Moon administration must heed the views of the Korean people of the South.

Conclusion: Due to the foregoing mythical reasons, the Seoul government has taken a position opposite to its constituency, further contributing to anti-China sentiment. It is the government that is responsible for Korea's ill-perceived indulgences of China. The public is frustrated with the government's illusion of China as a cooperative partner, while the rise of China induces anxiety. So long as a vast majority (72%) support the continued alliance with the US, the government remains the culprit behind China's burgeoning unilateral behavior in the Northeast Asian region.

9. Does North Korea's Kim Jong-un have a nuclear surprise for President Biden?

scmp.com – by Park Chan-Kyong – 16 January 2021

Will he or won't he test something, and sooner or leter?

10.  China 'inflamed' North Korea fury over border dispute as Kim gives nuclear green light

Express · by Callum Hoare · January 15, 2021

I think many of us forget or are unaware of the Korea-China border dispute.

Excerpt:

But Beijing too could find itself in the line of North Korea's wrath in the future, surrounding a little-known border along the Baekdu Mountain (also known as Mount Paektu).

The active stratovolcano has a large crater called Heaven Lake, formed by the "Millennium" eruption of 946, which sent about 30 cubic miles of tephra into the sky in one of the largest and most violent eruptions in the last 5,000 years.

But international affairs expert J. Berkshire Miller warned sparks could also fly between the two nations in the future.

He wrote in the Diplomat: "Historical records point to Baekdu as the site where Korea's first kingdom, Gojoseon, was established.

11. North Korea flaunts new weapons amid Washington, D.C., turmoil

ABCNews.com 

Does Kim think US domestic turmoil provides him freedom of action and opportunity?

12.  Japan-Korea comfort women controversy re-erupts

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · January 15, 2021

But it never did (and may not ever) go away.

13. New virus cases in 500s for 6th day; tougher curbs partially eased

en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · January 17, 2021

Be careful of premature easing.

14.  S. Korea officially invited as guest nation to G-7 summit in Britain

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · January 17, 2021

15. Seoul's new envoy to Tokyo committed to "political" solution to historical conflicts

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · January 17, 2021

It is Moon and Suga who must be committed to political solutions.  Solutions require the highest level of national leadership from both countries. They must commit to national security and national prosperity as the priorities while managing the historical issues.

16. 'South Korea widens gap with North in military strength'

The Korea Times – by Yi Whan-woo - January 17, 2021

A hooah looking ROK soldier, though I think their current uniforms are better than this one in the photo which look more similar to the US Army style "pajamas" we were forced to wear for a few years.

A journalist asked me why the north's place declined given that it showed us new weapons systems, specifically the "new" ICBM and SLBMs.  My response: Military power consists of intent, capability, and training.  I believe the Global Firepower report assessment is based on what can be assessed as demonstrated capabilities. The new ICBM and SLBM have not been tested and we have seen no evidence of their deployment to operational units and no evidence of training in those units. Therefore, it would be a mistake to consider them as systems part of north Korea's global fire power.  The same is true for much of the modernized conventional military equipment we observed during the October 10th military parade during the 75th anniversary of the KWP.  The north demonstrates intent to modernize and field new equipment but there is no evidence that such equipment is operational, that it has been fielded, and that sufficient training with the new equipment has been conducted.  And the same goes for a willingness to develop a nuclear powered submarine which is one of the most technically complex systems to build and will likely be many years before one is fielded if they can even successfully build one.  And then before the capability will become viable they will need to build more than one - There is a saying it takes three to make one. To deploy one submarine you need one submarining and preparing to replace the one that is deployed And then a third one is recovering from deployment and then preparing to enter the training and preparation phase.  You will always have one sub recovering, one sub deployed, and one preparing to deploy.  The north is a long way from being able to field such a capability.

17. North Korea set for Supreme People's Assembly session following party congress

The Korea Times · January 17, 2021

Something else to keep us watching though many think this is another rubber stand event.  But we have to observe for indicators.

18.  Experts split over NK's nuclear missile threat

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · January 17, 2021

While we cannot allow ourselves to overreact to these reports and demonstrations, we must also be wary of these developments.  At least the regime is showing us the intent to develop these weapons. 

19. S. Korea's economy anticipates synergy with 'Bidenomics'

koreaherald.com · by Bae Hyunjung · January 17, 2021

20. U.S. author takes on Korean icon in 'King Sejong the Great'

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

King Sejong was an enlightened leader.

"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."

- The Preamble to the US Constitution

"The President may indeed in one respect resemble the commander of an army in peace, but in another and more essential sense he resembles the commander of a ship at sea. He must have a helm to grasp, a course to steer, a port to seek."

- Henry Brooks Adams

"The president we get is the country we get. With each new president the nation is conformed spiritually."

- E.L. Doctorow

Subversion: The undermining of the power and authority of an established system or institution.

As in: "the ruthless subversion of democracy"