Jalen Johnson Will Determine Duke’s Ceiling This Year

Plus, why Duke’s opening night turnover issues are likely much ado about nothing

Michael Jordan once famously (or, around these parts, infamously) said that North Carolina’s “ceiling is the roof”. Well, this season, Duke’s ceiling may be Jalen Johnson.

The Blue Devils’ floor has been well established in the seemingly never-ending leadup to this unique college basketball season. With a solid core of returnees that balance experience (Jordan Goldwire) with NBA potential (Wendell Moore and Matthew Hurt), there was never much doubt that Duke would once again be amongst the top teams in the ACC. But the impact of Duke’s incoming talent was a question mark, perhaps epitomized by one Jalen Johnson, a player who simultaneously earned consensus 5* recognition but minimal hype.

Now, reading too much into 81-71 Duke’s victory over Coppin State would be akin to, in a normal season, judging Duke’s title hopes based on the first preseason game. It may be well into ACC season before the Blue Devils’ true 8-man rotation emerges, let alone their go-to unit. But Jalen Johnson’s development will likely be the key factor in how Coach K makes those decisions down the road.

In a potentially head-spinning shift from last season’s Vernon Carey-led squad, Duke’s most talented lineup likely doesn’t include a true center. But if Hurt is going to be able to be Duke’s biggest man on the floor, Johnson will need to compliment him both defensively and on the glass. And Saturday afternoon, he showed the potential to do just that.

Johnson had two highlight reel blocks in the first half alone and finished the game with 19 rebounds. He showed the ability to switch defensively and play productive help defense at the rim. All the while, he scored 19 points without missing a shot.

Whether or not Johnson can be similarly productive against major conference opponents will determine whether Coach K can tinker with a small ball strategy or be forced to sacrifice his most talented lineup to incorporate a more traditional big. If Duke can do the former, March glory is very much in the cards. If it can’t, the Blue Devils’ ceiling this season could be much lower than they’ve grown accustomed.

Rich Randomness:

—Much will be made of Duke’s trouble with turnovers and their inability to blow out an undermatched Coppin State squad. But consider this in the context of this being Duke’s first competitive game of the season. In last season’s exhibition opener, the Blue Devils only scored 69 points, won by just six, and turned the ball over 14 times. In the first game of the 2018 Canada trip, the Blue Devils had 14 turnovers and RJ Barrett shot 12-for-30 from the field. Sloppiness is the norm, not the exception, the first time a young college squad plays a real opponent, so any “the sky is falling” takes from 22 Blue Devil turnovers are hyperbolic.

—Were it not for Johnson’s stellar play, DJ Steward’s 24 points would have been the story of the day. Coupled with Goldwire’s performance, in which the senior was clearly more comfortable when he could play off the ball offensively (and focus on being a defensive disruptor), Steward’s ability to play as a true combo guard and potentially seize a starting role will be vital for Duke’s offense.

—Coppin State has one player taller than 6-foot-7 on its roster, which is likely why freshman center Mark Williams saw limited minutes, and grad-transfer Patrick Tapé did not see the floor at all. Against Michigan State, and more so Illinois, Duke’s big bodies will be needed, so one has to hope that it was the matchup, and not Coach K’s confidence in his big men, that dictated those decisions.