11/27/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. New virus cases over 500 for 2nd day as pandemic deepens on cluster infections

2. Chinese FM warns Korea against siding with U.S.

3. Chinese FM meets parliamentary leader, says Koreas should control their peninsula's 'fate'

4. N. Korea orders overseas missions not to antagonize U.S.: S. Korea's state intelligence agency

5. Police halt breakup of anti-THAAD protesters in Seongju

6. Biden is Kim’s to lose

7. North Korea’s Kim vents fury as pressure mounts over virus and economy, South says

8. S. Korea agency says N. Korea executed people, shut capital

9. Third wave is result of belated, inconsistent response

10. Moon's special adviser urges S. Korea-Japan cooperation to help prevent 'new Cold War'

11. N. Korean authorities transfer border patrol regiment out of Hyesan

12. Ri Pyong Chol rushes to Hyesan to deal with the "Hyesan Incident"

13. Expert questions North Korea gold smuggling report

14. North Korea surveys population for illiterates, orders reading classes

15. Border restrictions drastically cut North Korea's trade

16. Moon meets top Chinese diplomat, requests role for inter-Korean ties

1. New virus cases over 500 for 2nd day as pandemic deepens on cluster infections

Yonhap News Agency · 주경돈 · November 27, 2020

Clusters - gatherings.

2. Chinese FM warns Korea against siding with U.S.

Chosun Ilbo · Ahn Jun-yong · November 27, 2020

The Minister said the quiet part out loud.

3. Chinese FM meets parliamentary leader, says Koreas should control their peninsula's 'fate'

Yonhap News Agency · 장동우 · November 27, 2020

Code for do not let the US interfere. All in support of the mutual objective of both China and North Korea: to split the ROK/US alliance. And with the not-so-subtle caveat that China will play a "constructive role" as an important neighbor, which means it will be constructive for Chinese interests.

4. N. Korea orders overseas missions not to antagonize U.S.: S. Korea's state intelligence agency

Yonhap News Agency · 장동우 · November 27, 2020

Interesting information and assessment. I am not sure about "irrational actions." Kim acts very rational and I think he is demonstrating that here if this report is accurate.

5. Police halt breakup of anti-THAAD protesters in Seongju

Yonhap News Agency · 유청모 · November 27, 2020

These are professional agitators who have hamstrung the ROK government and who are, of course, having a significant impact on operations and life support to our troops manning the THAAD Battery.

6. Biden is Kim’s to L=lose

War On the Rocks · Ramon Pacheco Pardo · November 27, 2020

Will Kim alter his strategy? If he does try to build a good relationship with Biden, will it be sincere or part of his political warfare strategy and long con?

I do fear that those whispering about dealing realistically with Kim really mean to give concessions, enter into arms control negotiations, and accept Kim as a nuclear power.

If we want to deal with Kim realistically, we need to check our assumptions as to the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategy and objectives.

7. North Korea’s Kim vents fury as pressure mounts over virus and economy, South says

Washington Post · Simon Denyer & Min Joo Kim · November 27, 2020

The question is how can the alliance exploit this pressure? But again, I am not sure if Kim's actions are irrational from the perspective of the nature of the Kim family regime.

8. S. Korea agency says N. Korea executed people, shut capital

AP · Hyung-Jin Kim · November 27, 2020

Again, executions are "rational" based on the history and nature of the Kim family regime.  Kim Jong-Un has been using executions as a tool for control since he took power.

9. Third wave is result of belated, inconsistent response

Dong-A Ilbo · November 27, 2020

Criticism of the ROK government. 

10. Moon’s special adviser urges S. Korea-Japan cooperation to help prevent ‘new Cold War’

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · November 26, 2020

I do not agree with Moon Chung-In too much, but I do agree that South Korea-Japan cooperation is a must for mutual security and prosperity. I do not think South Korea and Japan can "mediate" between the US and China.

11. N. Korean authorities transfer border patrol regiment out of Hyesan

Daily NK · Ha Yoon Ah · November 27, 2020

This is related to the alleged reports of gold smuggling: the "Hyesan incident." Hyesan has always been a focal point for resistance and illicit activities partly due to its proximity to the Chinese border.

12. Ri Pyong Chol rushes to Hyesan to deal with the "Hyesan Incident"

Daily NK · Lee Chae Un · November 26, 2020

This report seems to give credence to the gold smuggling report and the Hyesan incident, though there are some who question the gold smuggling. Sending the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission seems like a significant action.

13. Expert questions North Korea gold smuggling report

Asia Times · Bradley K. Martin · November 26, 2020

It will be interesting to learn the truth (if we ever can).

14. North Korea surveys population for illiterates, orders reading classes

Radio Free Asia · Myungchul Lee, Leejin Jun, & Eugene Whong · November 25, 2020

Again, we should recognize the importance of Radio Free Asia and the contacts it maintains inside North Korea.

I think this is an illustration of the long-term effects of the "Arduous March" of the great famine of 1994-1996. Think about the impacts from COVID-19 and the regime's mitigation measures.

15. Border restrictions drastically cut North Korea's trade

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Park Sung-Woo & Lee Jee-Young · November 27, 2020

And, of course, smuggling as well. How long can these restrictions be maintained before there is a severe internal crisis? What is the "safety valve" for the people? The growing markets since the Arduous March of 1994-1996 have performed the function of a safety valve after the collapse of the public distribution system. These restrictions are going to eventually break those markets, which, of course, could be the objective of the regime (and Kim Jung-Un has the opportunity as well as an event on which to blame the collapse: COVID).

16. Moon meets top Chinese diplomat, requests role for inter-Korean ties

Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · November 26, 2020

China will not solve South Korea (or ROK/US alliance) security problems on the Korean peninsula.

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- Henry Moore

“… insurgency and counterinsurgency… have enjoyed a level of military, academic, and journalistic notice unseen since the mid-1960s. Scholars and practitioners have recently reexamined 19th- and 20th-century counterinsurgency campaigns waged by the United States and the European colonial powers, much as their predecessors during the Kennedy administration mined the past relentlessly in the hope of uncovering the secrets of revolutionary guerrilla warfare. The professional military literature is awash with articles on how the armed services should prepare for what the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) refers to as “irregular warfare,” and scholars, after a long hiatus, have sought to deepen our understanding of the roles that insurgency, terrorism, and related forms of political violence play in the international security environment.”

-William Rosenau, “Subversion and Terrorism: Understanding and Countering the Threat”

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