Second wave could kill 85,000 and put 356,000 in hospital, doomsday report warns
Around 85,000 more people could die with coronavirus and 356,000 could be admitted to hospital during the second wave, a leaked doomsday document from Government scientists warned in July.
A pessimistic hypothesis submitted to ministers by SAGE experts claimed infections could peak at 100,000 a day by Valentine’s Day in a ‘worst-case scenario’.
Around 25,000 people could be in hospital during the peak of the second surge, which could get steadily worse until March. The number of hospitals patients peaked at 19,849 during the first Covid-19 wave.
The SAGE report, which is now three months old, stressed that the figures were a ‘worst-case planning scenario’ rather than predictions.
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Published on July 30, the core assumption of the report was that the UK would suffer ‘a difficult autumn followed by a large winter peak’, the Spectator reports.
The virus could double every two weeks in the large winter peak, it claimed.
Deaths could peak at around 800 a day in ‘late February 2021’, while 5,000 could be in intensive care in England by March.
Meanwhile, Scotland could see 300 patients be admitted to the ICU, while Welsh hospitals could admit 400 people. At the peak of the first wave, there were 3,301 patients in ICUs.
One of the assumptions in the report was that restrictions would be tightened ‘to reduce non-household contacts to half of their normal pre-March 2020 lockdown levels’ although schools would remain open.
SAGE scientists highlighted what they believed to be the worst possible outcome at the time – although it comes as a major analysis from Imperial College suggests nearly 100,000 people are already catching coronavirus every day in England.
Some of the assumptions in the report have already been put into action by the Government in the three months that have passed since its publication.
Boris Johnson has tried to reduced household contact by introducing a three tier lockdown system, although the prime minister insists it is a ‘moral duty’ that schools must remain open.
The Tory leader has also warned the public to prepare for six months of restrictions.
It comes as the prime minister is under growing pressure to impose a circuit breaker in England like many other countries have done in recent weeks.
On Tuesday, the UK recorded its highest daily Covid-19 death toll since May, amid warnings that all of England may need to be put under tier three by mid-December.
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