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What Happens If The Chicago Bears “Blow It Up” In 2021?

chicago bears

The Chicago Bears got a taste of unwelcome reality in Los Angeles. Despite all their efforts to this point, they still haven’t figured out how to fix the offense. The revamped coaching staff? New quarterback? Nothing has worked. It still looks as broken as ever. All the while that great defense continues to build up mileage on their aging bodies.

Even if they make the playoffs, nobody thinks for a second that they’ll compete for the Super Bowl. Not after seeing what the Rams did to them. Then what? The 2021 salary cap is expected to drop significantly. By as much as $23 million by some estimates. This will put the Bears in a serious financial crunch.

That could force them into some tough decisions. Namely two courses of action. Do they attempt a sort of soft reboot? Or do they tear it all down and start fresh? A reboot would entail making maybe one major sacrifice among their expensive veterans and then a series of minor moves to ease pressure on the cap. Then try to fix their biggest issues. Particularly on the offensive line and at quarterback.

Most would assume that is the logical course of action. On the other hand, a full teardown isn’t impossible. So what would happen if the Bears went that direction?

If the Chicago Bears tear it down? Expect a firesale

Untouchables:
  • Jaylon Johnson
  • Darnell Mooney
  • Cole Kmet
  • Roquan Smith

In a teardown situation, there is only one type of player that should be deemed untouchable. These are players who are still young with a considerable upside that the team can build around moving forward. Hopefully as part of a new core. Back in 2015, they started out with the oldest roster in the NFL but basically nobody worth building around. The only player to make it from that point to now was Kyle Fuller.

This time around looks more promising. Roquan Smith is an emerging stud at inside linebacker and still just 23-years old. He’s joined by the three standout members of the 2020 draft class. Jaylon Johnson looks like a major find at cornerback. Darnell Mooney could be something special with his mix of speed and route running. As for Cole Kmet, he’s already a good blocker who is showing considerable upside as a receiving threat.

Tradeable players:
  • Kyle Fuller ($11 million in cap, 2nd or 3rd round pick)
  • Khalil Mack ($5.24 million in cap, 1st or 2nd round pick)
  • Akiem Hicks ($10.5 million in cap, 3rd or 4th round pick)
  • Eddie Jackson ($1.85 million in cap, 1st or 2nd round pick)
  • Anthony Miller ($1.21 million in cap, 5th or 6th round pick)

Tradeable players are any veteran either on their big contract or with a contract coming up who has some sort of value teams might be interested in. The Chicago Bears have a number of players who fit that profile, especially on defense. Kyle Fuller and Khalil Mack are playing some of their best football this year. The market for cornerbacks and pass rushers is always strong in the NFL.

Akiem Hicks remains a dominant force on the interior and Calais Campbell has proven that guys like that still fetch picks in trades even if they’re over 30-years old. As for Eddie Jackson? He’s one of the best ball-hawking free safeties in the NFL. He is also just 26-years old. Somebody will be willing to give up a nice package of picks for him even with the expensive contract.

As for Anthony Miller? Despite underachieving to this point in his career, he’s shown obvious signs that he can be a potential impact receiver with his strong route running and underrated speed. There’s bound to be a few offensive coaches out there who’d love to have him.

Other cut possibilities:
  • Charles Leno Jr. ($6.2 million in cap)
  • Bobby Massie ($5.4 million in cap)
  • Jimmy Graham ($7 million in cap)
  • Buster Skrine ($2.8 million in cap)

Both Leno and Massie have proven they are no better than average offensive tackles. The money they’re being paid is too much at this point. While finding replacements won’t be easy, the Bears are better off moving on sooner than later. The same can be said for Jimmy Graham. He’ll turn 35-years old in 2021 and is not part of their future plans. The same goes for Buster Skrine who is into his 30s as well.

Final assessment:

Let’s go with the conservative side of these projections. If the Chicago Bears did all of these moves, they would end up with $45.8 million in cap space for 2021 and five additional picks for the draft including two 2nd and one 3rd rounder. This presuming they find takers for all those players. Combined with the projected three compensatory picks they could receive? That would push their total to 14.

It shouldn’t be difficult for the top four as they’re each among the best at their respective positions. It’s not a premium way to start a rebuild, but it’s a way better setup than Pace had five years ago in 2015. Also as the dead money starts to clear up in 2022 and beyond, the Bears will have tons more cash to throw around if they wish.

Rest assured some rough seasons will likely follow but if the next regime can get the big picks right, especially at quarterback? It’ll go well.

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