March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010
August 2010
September 2010 October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 December 2011 January 2012 February 2012 March 2012 April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 August 2013 September 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014 December 2014 January 2015 February 2015 March 2015 April 2015 May 2015 June 2015 July 2015 August 2015 September 2015 October 2015 November 2015 December 2015 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 July 2016 August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 November 2016 December 2016 January 2017 February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017 October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019 January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 August 2020 September 2020 October 2020 November 2020 December 2020 January 2021 February 2021 March 2021 April 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 August 2021 September 2021 October 2021 November 2021 December 2021 January 2022 February 2022 March 2022 April 2022 May 2022 June 2022 July 2022 August 2022 September 2022 October 2022 November 2022 December 2022 January 2023 February 2023 March 2023 April 2023 May 2023 June 2023 July 2023 August 2023 September 2023 October 2023 November 2023 December 2023 January 2024 February 2024 March 2024 April 2024
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26
27
28
29
30
News Every Day |

Here is Oppenheimer's take on 4 possible US election outcomes and how the stock market might react

voting elections 2020 wiki page 2x1
  • Oppenheimer Asset Management examines four possible outcomes to the November 3 election and their likely market impact. 
  • A Biden win and the Democrats taking over the House and the Senate would be a "worst case" scenario for the markets and stocks might fall by up to 10%, John Stoltzfus, chief strategist at Oppenheimer, says.
  • Once the election is over, the market will once more focus on the economy and earnings, Oppenheimer says.
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

The upcoming US presidential election promises to be anything but ordinary. Market-based gauges of volatility show investors are preparing for a high degree of uncertainty over the outcome of the vote, despite what the most recent popular polls might suggest. 

The S&P 500, which hit record highs in early September, is heading for its largest one-month fall since March, having lost nearly 6% so far and nervousness over the November 3 election has been no small part of that. 

John Stoltzfus, chief strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, which has around $30 billion in assets under management, has taken a look at four possible outcomes and what each means for the markets:  

Scenario #1: Biden wins the Presidency and the Democrats gain control of both the House and the Senate - Negative for stocks.

Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus says this outcome would constitute a "worst case scenario", in that it would curtail "the checks and balances that demand negotiation and compromise among opposing parties across the fabric of the political landscape that stretches across the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the White House." 

"In such a scenario we might expect the equity market to respond to such an across the board sweep by the Democrats in the upcoming election with a 6% to a 10% decline in a short period of time," Stoltzfus said in a note on Monday. The concern would be over too much legislative power being concentrated in Democrat hands.

This could pose a number of risks, he says. These include higher corporation and individual taxes that could sour both sentiment and spending and reduce US corporate competitiveness, particularly if this limits opportunity for investment and innovation. The result could mean even more pressure on government finances.

Read more: 'Expect more stock-market weakness': A Wall Street strategist lays out how investors' most-trusted defenses against crashes are failing them at a critical time

Scenario #2: Trump wins re-election, Republicans hold the Senate and Democrats retain control of the House. - Positive for stocks.

Here, the political structure of the House and Senate would remain broadly unchanged and likely produce less uncertainty for the market to digest than would Scenario #1, Stoltzfus says.

"In such a scenario the market might rally 4% to 6% near term considering that the current administration has had a broadly business-friendly stance over the past four years, led efforts that resulted in the first tax reform in 38 years, and oversaw a drop in the unemployment rate to a 59-year low in the months before the disruption of the global and US economy caused by the pandemic," he said.

Scenario #3 Trump wins re-election, Republicans sweep the House and the Senate - Mildly negative for stocks.

This, Stoltzfus says, is the least likely scenario. Like Scenario #1, the market might respond negatively, or at least "not as positively" as it might to Scenario #2. 

"In our experience the equity markets feel most comfortable when the House and Senate are not controlled by just one party. In our view we find the market feels comfortable with: checks and balances in government; hard won negotiations; and even political gridlock—rather than handing any one party too much control," Stoltzfus said.

Scenario #4 Trump wins; Democrats retain control of the House and take the Senate - Mostly neutral for stocks.

Under this scenario, Oppenheimer sees the market trading flat in the aftermath, as investors wait to see how close to the political center the Democrats in the Senate might be. 

"The biggest political worry so far exhibited by the market would appear to us to be that the Democratic Party might pivot left toward the progressives after the election," Stoltzfus said. 

"Ultimately the market's vote comes after the election as it judges the effects of political policy on the economy."

Read more: UBS: Buy these 23 stocks across major themes that are poised to outperform amid uncertainty and conflicting signals in the market

Read the original article on Business Insider
Москва

Мэр рассказал о ходе благоустройства на западе города

Paige Spiranac puts on busty display in plunging top as she lists the ‘things that drive me crazy’

Ryan Poles Needs A Last-Minute Review Of His Quarterback Scouting Notes To Ensure Nothing Is Missed

India unveils Gukesh as its youngest challenger in chess history

Laura Dern Is the Star of Roger Vivier’s New Short Movie

Ria.city






Read also

Boys tennis: Branson’s Hoeveler wins singles title as third seed

Miami business conference featuring Tom Brady goes awry over signing fiasco

Opinion: The five positions Spurs need to strengthen to challenge in Europe next year

News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on Today24.pro

News Every Day

Paige Spiranac puts on busty display in plunging top as she lists the ‘things that drive me crazy’

Today24.pro — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here


News Every Day

Laura Dern Is the Star of Roger Vivier’s New Short Movie



Sports today


Новости тенниса
Арина Соболенко

Соболенко: я предпочитаю смотреть мужской теннис, а не женский



Спорт в России и мире
Москва

Олимпиада по финансовой грамотности МГУ проходит при поддержке СберСтрахования жизни



All sports news today





Sports in Russia today

Москва

Расплата за расточительство! ФК «Оренбург» на домашнем поле уступил ФК «Динамо» (Москва) – 1:2


Новости России

Game News

Шапки женские вязаные на Wildberries, 2024 — новый цвет от 392 руб. (модель 466)


Russian.city


Москва

Космонавт, IT и робототехника, врач: москвичи рассказали, кем мечтают стать их дети


Губернаторы России
Сергей Собянин

Собянин: В поликлиниках Москвы внедрят расшифровку рентген-исследований через ИИ


Дороги Подмосковья в четверг утром загружены на 5 баллов

Замена труб канализации в Московской области

Рабочий сорвался с высоты и погиб на стройке на северо-западе Москвы

В МИД России назвали условие для удара по территории Польши


Леонардо ДиКаприо может сыграть Фрэнка Синатру в новом байопике Мартина Скорсезе

Певец Стас Пьеха рассказал о постановочной драке с Тимати, за которую его хотели избить

«Посмотрите на этих губастых»: Розенбаум разгромил любителей пластики

Девушке сделали предложение на концерте Басты: "Бери кольцо"


Новак Джокович в пятый раз получил спортивный «Оскар» как атлет года

Камбэком обернулся матч вундеркинда из России перед стартом Еленой Рыбакиной в Мадриде

«Был риск завершить борьбу еще в первом матче». В России оценили победу Рыбакиной в Штутгарте

Кудерметова выиграла турнир WTA в Штутгарте в парном разряде



Шапки женские на Wildberries — скидки от 398 руб. (на новые оттенки)

Шапки женские вязаные на Wildberries, 2024 — новый цвет от 392 руб. (модель 466)

Подключение системы отопления в Московской области

Зацепиться за угол. Какое жильё можно купить в Москве за миллион-полтора


Собянин: В поликлиниках Москвы внедрят расшифровку рентген-исследований через ИИ

В России открылись пункты оценки для участников отбора на программу «Время героев»

Столица двинулась на «Восток»: чем занимаются путешественники на трассе М-12

Шойгу отстранил Тимура Иванова от должности замглавы Минобороны


В Ступине пройдет конкурс по поддержке талантливой молодежи

Всероссийская акция «Тотальный диктант» прошла в Лобне

Преподаватели столичных колледжей изучат эффективные технологии ИИ

Арестован злоумышленник, ранивший мотоциклиста на Краснодарской



Путин в России и мире






Персональные новости Russian.city
Елена Волкова

«Где ваши манеры?»: интервью со звездным экспертом по этикету Дианой Булатовой



News Every Day

Ramon Cardenas aims to cement his contender status agains Jesus Ramirez Rubio tonight




Friends of Today24

Музыкальные новости

Персональные новости