A’s postseason preview: The questions Oakland must answer to get out of wild-card round
The A’s are just a win or a Houston Astros loss away from clinching the American League West with seven games to go in their season.
We know, at least, that the A’s are going to the postseason, currently holding a 33-20 record. Here are a few questions they face as their third straight playoff appearance looms.
Rhythm or rest?
It’s fair to ask if the A’s might find it best to keep key players out of harm’s way. Should Matt Olson, who’s started every game this season, take a breather? Should Stephen Piscotty protect his ailing wrist?
“If we do, then you have to get some guys some rest that are banged up, and we have a few guys that are banged up,” manager Bob Melvin said. “Then you have to make sure your bullpen is prepared for the postseason. You still want to win as many games as you can to potentially try to get maybe a better matchup — even though in the American League, I don’t see an easy matchup.
“Obviously you want to play at home and you want to get everybody ready for it. But it’s easier said than done because you also want to create a winning atmosphere going in. So there’s always a balance.”
Interrupting any semblance of rhythm at the plate could have dire impact on a three-game wild-card series. But expect a few players to take a breather.
Can they survive without Matt Chapman?
The A’s should send the Arizona Diamondbacks a thank you card for leaving Jake Lamb up for grabs. After losing their Platinum Glove third baseman in Matt Chapman, the A’s managed to slide in a motivated replacement in Lamb.
“We want to give him a big opportunity, and he’s come through. That’s how you get reps against everybody,” Melvin said. “He’s done a really nice job and deserves to be playing every day at this point.”
What can they prove in the Dodgers series?
In the upcoming series against the Dodgers, we learn a lot about how the A’s match up against elite pitching. The A’s are most likely to face Dodgers phenom Dustin May in Tuesday’s opener in Los Angeles. May has some of the most electric stuff in the bigs, including a fastball with mind-bending movement and elite spin on his curveball.
May has a 2.68 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 10 games (9 starts) this year. He’s not infallible, he gives up some hard contact. And despite an arsenal of wicked pitches, his strikeout rate isn’t particularly high. But how the A’s fare against one of baseball’s best arms could tell us a lot about how they can adjust to strong pitching.
They’ve faced a fair share of baseball’s strongest pitchers this season and struggled for the most part. In three games against Lance Lynn, the A’s managed four runs total with 25 strikeouts. San Diego’s Zach Davies tossed seven shutout innings against them. They got one run off Arizona’s Zac Gallen, striking out eight times. Dylan Bundy held them to three runs over three starts.
The A’s offense feasts on mistakes to turn out wins, often relying on weak bullpens late in games.
With plenty of baseball’s best on the horizon, Oakland would be good to demonstrate they can handle strong pitching in big situations. The A’s need to make in-game adjustments that might open scoring avenues against tough pitches in particular.
May is going through growing pains but will present an opportunity for the A’s to show how they handle some of the game’s best. Los Angeles’ Game 3 pitcher is yet to be announced, but the club’s depth of elite starting pitchers — Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw — could provide another welcome challenge.
Who could start Game 1 of a wild card series?
The A’s will face the same conundrum they’ve faced for their past two wild-card berths: who will be the starting pitcher to open the postseason? At least they’ll have a three-game series this time. They also have a much richer talent pool to work with, so choosing a Game 1 starter isn’t as do-or-die a decision for the A’s to make.
There are a few things to consider.
Jesús Luzardo and Chris Bassitt seem the clear frontrunners to get nods for the first two games. Despite starting a few steps behind other starters in camp, Bassitt emerged out the gate as Oakland’s most consistent arm. He’s fudged only a handful of outings, rounding himself out to a 2.57 ERA in 10 starts. He’s allowed one run over his last three starts, going at least six innings in each. With that kind of momentum, why wouldn’t the right-hander — projected to be a swingman in June — get at least one of the starts?
Luzardo’s positive coronavirus test also forced a slower start. He had to ramp up as the season began out of the bullpen, and was slower to find a feel for his stuff in his first few starts. But the left-hander has the most electric pitches among the entire rotation and is learning the big league grind fast. He has chipped his ERA down to 3.86.
The A’s have six viable starters with those two plus Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Mike Fiers and Mike Minor. One of the rotations’ biggest issues thus far has been an inability to eat innings on a consistent basis. For the most part, this stems from issues facing the same opposing hitters a third time through lineups.
A way to mitigate the potential for a third-time-through blow-up is to keep all starters in for just twice through the order, at most. Having options out of the rotation to piggyback — plus an elite bullpen — could be a strategy to keep opposing offenses on their toes.
Who will they want to face in the first round?
As a potential third seed, A’s are lined up to play the sixth-seeded Houston Astros in the wild-card series, which may be the most opportunistic matchup. Melvin has said he’s not sure he’d rather face a familiar foe or new team.
The A’s fared well against the Astros. Without Justin Verlander, the Astros’ rotation hasn’t been as strong. The bullpen is green, too, and the powerful lineup hasn’t hit as well as it has in the past.
For now, that matchup seems ideal. Move one seed up, and they’re in a nightmare matchup against the Cleveland Indians.
Cleveland has a murderer’s row of elite right-handed starters in Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Carlos Carrasco and young Triston McKenzie. The A’s are 9-2 in games against left-handed starters, 24-18 against right-handers, though their hitting splits are about even — .228 against righties and .223 against lefties.